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Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

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Comcast Cable

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
528

PIXEL HEIGHT
480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Washington 19, Us 12, S&p 6, China 5, Delaware 5, Bob 4, Ho 4, Boehner 3, Greece 3, U.s. 3, Alabama 3, Oracle 2, God 2, Rob 2, Geico 2, Michael Farr 2, Rick Santelli 2, Carl 2, John Boehner 2, Greg 2,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    December 21, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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of dollars in agricultural programs. without last minute action to pass a new bill, the government would have to force americans to buy milk at wildly inflated prices. that means we could pay $6 to $8 a gallon. it now costs an average of $3.65 a gallon. >> that's more government genius, right? >> we had some genius leaders in your fine country. >> by the way, most of the people trying to solve the fiscal cliff are the same people that got us into the fiscal cliff with patches, patches, patches. >> it's a perfect business model, right? >> thanks for watching. happy holidays, everybody. >> see you on monday. hi, everybody. happy friday to you.
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welcome to the closing bell. ten days and counting. how many? >> ten days and counting, not till christmas, but until we go over the fiscal cliff. we're not closer to a deal in washington today. you can tell from the sell-off, investors do not like it. >> no, posting their largest decline since november 14th, in case you were wondering. although we are off the lows of the session right now. the dow was down 189 two hours into the trading session. we've come off those lows. but at this point, the dow is down 1% for the week and we are down 1% today at 13,173. nasdaq lower, as well. let's see how many percentage points we're down right now. down 1.25%. the technology sector is taking a bigger hit today. down to 3,012 on the nasdaq and the s&p 500 index is down 1% at 1428. . >> house speaker john boehner says he's still open to a offer
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from the democrats. >> it was a dramatic evening last night. john harwood was there. he has the latest on the on talks. are there any talks, john? >> i think so. but they're pretty muted. this bill was not win of those weeks that makes washington look good. come to think of it, there aren't many weeks that make washington look good. but this was especially especially difficult because you had negotiations getting close, the speaker trying to push plan b through the house last night. that didn't make it. he left the capital today having not succeeded in pushing through his plan. but he had one note that investors could take with some reassurance from him because he was asked, are you leaving the talks from the president altogether? listen to that exchange. >> it sounds like you're walking away from talks with the president. >> no, no. >> are you? >> no. listen, i did not say that. nobody ought to read anything into this. we've got differences, but the problem -- the country has big
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spending problems and we've got to get serious about addressing them. >> so there's still room for the speaker of the house to be involved in a solution. for the moment, he kicked the can over to the senate and said that president obama and harry reid have to work out a solution. harry reid kicked the can right back and said what the house ought to do is pass the bill the senate passed. >> if republicans want to assure american families taxes don't go up on january 1st, they should simply pass the senate bill. >> now, i think in reality, guys, that solution is about as likely as plan b. you've got to have democrats and republicans talking and i think the question now is going to be in talks over the weekend and next week, do we get either a medium to large deal resurrecting the deal that obama and boehner almost struck earlier this week or do you get a small deal that simply delays
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everything for a month while they continue hassling? not a pretty picture at this point. >> joining us, rob mcguyver of the gemson quality growth fun, troy, rick santelli is with us in chicago, as well. troy, what do you think? how do you invest? do you even bother to try and invest right now into 2013 with all that's going on in washington? >> if there's anything you're in right now that is sfend dependent on a fiscal cliff solution, you should probably look elsewhere where that favorable solution is not necessary in order to generate returns going into 2013. >> yeah, but is there anything that isn't supposed to the fiscal cliff? doesn't the market sell off if we don't do a deal? do you think some stocks won't get affected? >> well, everything strategy in every asset class class is
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supposed to some extent. but our strategy would be that particularly those tied to appreciating values are much more resistant if you end up having a fiscal cliff and the probability increases. some things have far less down side to that situation. >> michael farr has made his way through d.c. traffic. are you guys down there, are we going to get a deal at all or what's the mood down there right now? >> the mood down here, bill, is kind of plummy. and, you know, on the naughty and nice list, i can't believe these guys would be optimistic. you can't imagine such a petulant group going back and forth. we were expecting, really, some sort of at least accord, a framework for getting a deal done and getting into the first part of the new year. but it doesn't look like we're going to get there at this
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point. so -- >> you think we go over the cliff? >> i think the chances are increasing that yes, indeed, we will go over the cliff. i think the time is just running short for the very slow grinding wheels of washington to actually get it to any kind of conclusion. >> rob, what do you think? how do you invest in growth in an environment where we're not growing up and we have this bashier in washington? >> well, i think the opportunity for investors are in companies that have robust business model that's despite the assumption in washington can provide investors for those genuine strong business results that will be reflected in the stock prices. in fact, one of our fund holdings at niceky looked very, very good. we've seen a real positive thump in the stock price. we think there are some opportunities out there. >> do you think quality will win out? go with quality no matter the
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turmoil we're going through in washington right now? >> oh, absolutely. the pickleliest of companies, which we require a hard hit on equities, one of the companies, look at balance sheet and we're diversified particularly with those overseas exposures. >> rob, you're suggesting a more defensive approach, then? you're really focusing more on balance sheets? are you also looking at debt levels and dividends on those companies? >> yeah. we're looking at balance sheets, we're looking at cash flow, we're looking at return on equity. really, the fundamentals that sometimes the market overlooks. as we said already, mikey is a great example of that. >> right. >> straight fundamentals driving this market. rick santelli, what's driving things today? we've got a market off the lows. do you think this is all fiscal cliff or something else? >> consider this. we're down 18 in the s&p futures and we're 32 points off the
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lows, okay? so to me, this really sums up the whole discussion. listen, if you're one of these long-term players and you have an ironclad stomach and you don't turn on your tv, we're only down 17 or 18 points. but many who say you've got to avoid the volatility, they're right, as well. it depends on what your appetite is. i think if you're looking to buy good stocks, put in your bids lower, there's going to be more volatility. i'm not looking for agreement on either side. when you look at the fixed income markets, they're the adults in the sector room. granted, they're down five basis points on the day. one final note, as bad as all this may be, we're up 8% on the year on the dow and almost 14% on the year on the s&p. >> michael farr, you're usually a glass half full guy. are you confident that you still want to invest in this stock market even if we go over the cliff? >> of course. but, bill, i'm the half full
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kind of guy. we are up still, even today, like 5% since mid november. rick is right, this has been a pretty good year for investors. and i think the most important part to remember at a time like this where there's so much uncertainty is you never -- i don't know anybody who predicted a 15%, the 16% return on the s&p this year. so if you realize that you don't know that corporate america is in pretty good shape, that the multi national companies that our colleagues were talking about like nike are still pretty well together, there are things to do with your money for the long-term. count some blessings and don't panic too quickly here. the terrain is very bumpy. but the fundamentals are still holding together. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks, gentlemen. we appreciate your time today. >> thank you. >> have a great weekend and to you, as well. we have 50 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall
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street. we are off the lows. >> this is an expiration day. it's the last one for the year. we have a lot of volume. also, is this fiscal cliff here sell-off an tint to buy back into the market? we'll get some trading on that, coming up. and with just ten days to go, can congress reach a deal in time? and later, we'll hear from one republican who would have voted no on plan b last night. but congressman mick mulvaney is making a push to cut spending and make a deal. it's all coming up. stay tuned. well, if it isn't mr. margin.
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mr. margin? don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball. that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know.
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welcome back. intercontinental exchange and nyse are lower today at news of their $8 million merger. >> you get it, cold as ice? >> bob gets it. >> we never hesitate to play an old rock song from the '70s.
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i.c.e. is down 2.7%. i'll tell you why this is important. because you get a multiple of ice for your nyse shares, .17 shares of i.c.e., plus a tax component. as i.c.e. goes down, the money the nyse shareholders will get goes down. i.c.e. does not pay a dividend, but the nyse does. i.c.e. did commit to paying a dividend yesterday, $3 must know million is what they committed. that's very good news for nyse share hold erts. the second thing is, 28% premium for nyse shareholders. that premium is based on some significant cost energies. that's a fancy word for generally head count reduction. they were talking about $300 million in additional cost reduction on top of what they're already doing. so a lot of my friends up hstai at the nyse a little nervous about what that means for 2013.
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guys, back to you. >> bob, thanks very much. as we know, christmas just around the corner. most of our elected representatives have left washington and gone home for the holidays. >> lovely. what are the chances that the two sides can rise above and reach a deal before january 1st? representative zander levin and judd gregg joins us. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> representative, let me kick this off with you. you say you want the speaker to rise above his role and put the country first. what exactly would you like him to do? >> i think he has to go back and talk to the president of the united states. i think also to his counterparts in the senate. and try to figure this out. i think he's faced with a radicalized republican conference. i think that's very much tied his hands and, really, overcame him yesterday.
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i think, though, he must not be deterred by it. he needs to be the speaker of the entire house and try to be the speaker of the entire house. it would have a huge effect on taxpayers. it would have economic consequences and you would be discussing them when you -- >> what should the president do in that same vane? >> the president has been forthcoming. he and the speaker talked about a major package with tax increases and also some budget cuts. so they had some major discussions. but the speaker goes back, he goes to his caucus and he decides to have a different strategy, one that has a very different tax proposal and then they bring so-called plan c up that has very major cuts for
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kids, for seniors, for meals on wheels. that was a mistake and it failed. >> senator greg, are we going back to the period, the failure of plan b, does that bring us back to the period where the conservative wing of the republican party is opposing the speaker when it sounded like after the election that there was an air of compromise in washington and we might get a deal done? have we gone several steps backwards because of the failure of plan b last night? >> well, we didn't go forward, but i also don't think we went backwards that far. i think the speaker made it very clear what he could deliver if we could get the president and he on the same page. he said he would be able to pass a plan. he feels that's $1 of savings for every dollar of revenue. there is still a gap on that number. i believe there's still an opportunity here for the president and the speaker, as
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sandy said, so sit down in a ream quiet will i, hopefully, without a lot of -- but it sounds like the conservative republicans in the house are back to the situation where they won't tolerate any tax increase at all. i mean, isn't that what they opposed last night? >> no, i don't think so. i think last night was a statement that they -- that you have -- within the republican conference in the house, they're not going to raise taxes unless they get the spending cuts to go along with it. i think if there had been a package that was signed on to that they knew was legitimate, was real, was going to go to the senate and be passed, it had been a comprehensive package in the $2 trillion range which is what the president and the speaker had been talking about, i think that type of package could have been done. >> let me just interject because we know each other well. i don't think that was the
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meaning of yesterday. essentially, a lot of your former colleagues, the people who i think have rather different view of issues than you do, essentially said to the speaker, look, we will not accept any increase in taxes, even on the wealthy. the speaker tried to asuede them by saying, look, it wasn't a tax increase because it would have gone into effect, that he. but then when they talk about having automatic tax increases below a million, then the republicans called that the biggest tax increase in the world or in the history of this country. so essentially, you have a radicalized group within the republican caucus as steve said. it really essentially is going to help take this over the cliff unless the speaker acts as speaker of the entire house and not only the leader of his
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dysfunctional party. >> representative levin, what are we talking about in terms moving the deficit? how much money do you raise with these tax increases? and then i -- i guess the next question, naturally, is where are the spending cuts? >> let me just mention what was discussed apparently between the speaker and the president. about a trillion-two in tax increases and they would come for income over 250,000. most of it income above that and essentially would have raised $1.2 trillion. on the spending side, they discussed cuts of about $1 trillion, for example, $400 billion from health. so the speaker and the president had, i think, some meaningful discussion. i think the president was more than forthcoming. but essentially, the speaker
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decided to go back to the conference on a very different path, thinking he could pick up a conference that had been radicalized. it failed. >> well, everybody is sticking to their guns, though. >> i'm sorry, senator greg, where does it restart again, do you think? >> i think it restarts where basically the president and the speaker left off. and i think the speaker in his press conference made it pretty clear, that's that where it restarts. and i think he's definitive in that if he reaches an agreement with the president, he'll be able to get it through to his caucus. he's been equally definitive to say we have to have the spending reductions to match the $1.2 trillion in revenues. that's where the problem has been. right now it's a $200 billion to $400 billion problem depending on how you evaluate those spending cuts. it seems to me it's a bridgeable event. people like sandy lev yip, who is the most senior guy in the wayes and means and a serious
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and effective player in washington i think can push everybody towards getting back in the room and is trying to get it going again. >> we missed you, jack. >> thanks very much, gentlemen. >> i'm sorry. happy to be in new hampshire hoho now. >> you do look happy there. we're getting towards the close. we have about 40 minutes left in the session. >> up next, buy or not to buy? that's a question investors are asking with the fiscal cliff staring them in the face. >> despite the -- gold has lost its appeal as a safe haven lately, especially this week. find out if the precious metal can regain its shine, later on the closing bell. ♪
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welcome back. on wall street today, the market is down. it is off the worst levels of the afternoon. fears of going off the fiscal cliff, sending the dow down. right now, we're looking at a decline of about 135. do you want to buy into this cliff dip? let's talk numbers and send it over to bill. >> maria, thank you very much. on a technical side, we have i think our bull j.c. o'hara and on the fundamental side is our bear for the day, abigail dolittle. thank you both for joining us today. j.c., you would buy this cliff dip as it were. is that the case? >> absolutely. i think the 2% down day was an early gift to investors.
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the first is, if you look at a chart on the slide, you notice the 50-day moving average, we're trading around these levels here. over the past year, we've tested the 50 day moving average from above multiple times and the majority of the outcome we've been positive. close to 2.5% over the next few days. so i think we're going to get a bounce higher here. and the next reason i'll be buying right at these levels is 142 is a major level on the spy for support. if you look at from volume at price, we see a majority of the buyers and sellers are congregating right at these levels. >> you know, these are great points that you're making, j.c., and maybe we could see a bounce here of 3% to 5%, but the key word in that sentence is topped out. there's so much uncertainty. i see a topping process that takes time. it reflects the uncertainties, of course, around the fiscal cliff, but there seems to be a greater chance that maybe we will, in fact, fall over that cliff and push us into a recession next year.
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speaking of a recession, something i haven't seen a lot of focus on, the third largest economy in the world is in a recession right now. the eurozone is flirt, a double dip recession and i think there's a real wild card out there that i haven't seen a lot of people talk about relative to the year. that's a potential lonmin strike on the eastern coast. it could shut down the trading facilities from boston down to houston and that could put a real dent. so this speaks to me about uncertainty. >> you're talking about these uncertainties and you can't be blinded by the fiscal cliff, the uncertainties that were missing before. if you look at the internals of the market, you saw this week industries and discretionaries and sectors making 52-week highs. >> i would look at the other side of the technicals there, j.c. that chart is bearish to me. there have been nine since 1998. some very significant declines after the cross.
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and the s&p won't follow through. in addition, the index just put in the death cross, as well. so i think the risk on trade is going to be coming to an end. maybe again it's a topping process over the next couple of months. but to buy here for 3% to 5% i think is a mistake in the light of possibly having a 10% to 20% decline in the new year. >> here, we've been up 25 of those 30 times and that's 82%. i'll take those numbers in vegas any day. >> yeah, but again, if you're looking at a near term trade, i wouldn't be a i booer of 3% to 5% in the context of a potential 10% to 20% decline. i would rather take the fists off here and play it safe in this uncertainty. >> very good. two smart people, two very different points to move. that's what we love. merry christmas to you both. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> see you later. today on wall street, we have pretty good volatility.
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dow industrials down 130 points right now. just about 30 minutes before the closing bell. washington, do you want to know how to fix the economy? just ask our next guest, the dlafr governor. he'll tell us what washington can learn from his state, next. then a massive winter storm blowing through the country. how that is impacting everything from airline to retail stocks. that's coming up. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412.
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welcome back. when delaware governor jack marquel took office in 2009, he inherited a budget shortfall. since then, he's closed the budget gap, brought down the state's unemployment rate to 6.8%, well below the national average of 8 ers. >> and as washington faces its own fiscal problems, we're wonder whag lawmakers there with learn from delaware. governor markel joins us today. governor, good to see you again. welcome back. >> thank you. good to see both of you. >> what would you suggest washington does? part of what you did there was the temporary tax increases to bring in revenue that then they
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expire and you've got a new budget you put together. do you think that's something that washington should consider or what do you suggest they do? ? the approach that we followed in delaware was one where we wanted to continue to invest in things that would lead to a prosperous position for our people. that's education and economic development. we believed there ought to be some shared sacrifice. we wanted to protect the most vulnerable and we worked together across party lines. so i guess it's easier said than done in states where we actually have to have a balanced budget. but i think it is important for the business community to see resolution in washington so there's some kind of clarity about what comes next. >> absolutely. and that's what we're seeing, too, a reluctancy on the part of business to put budgets together, to put money into r&d or investing as well as hire folks. tell us about the impact your state would see as a result of going over the fiscal cliff.
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it feels like we're going to go over the cliff at this point. what would be the impact in terms of budget cuts, government spending stopping in your state? >> first of all, there could be the impact of the budget itself in terms of cutting some of the federal money that we and all states rely on because we pat ner t if federal government. but the other piece, the impact on our tax revenue as a result of less investment, obviously, the taxes going up on people. so there could be a double whammy. this is one reason that i and a number of other governors, both democrats and republicans visited a few weeks ago with president obama and vice president biden and then later in the day with speaker boehner and leader reid saying we're not advocating for one plan or another. we're saying, a, we would love to have governors voices heard and, b, please get something done, especially for the businesses in our state. >> i know you're trying to remain neutral in that regard and not trying to influence the
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negotiations. did you have both sides some flexibility in the negotiations. but let's face it, as marie ya points out, depending on the kind of cliff resolution we get, and i don't think we're going over the fiscal cliff just for the record. >> i know you don't. >> i don't. >> you could face some spending cuts as a result. so can't you come down one way or the other based on what the impact would be on your state? >> i probably could, but i've committed to my other governors. the national governors association is bipartisan. so we've essentially agreed with each other that we wouldn't come down on one side or another. because it's very important to us the governors have a seat at the table. here in delaware, aus mentioned -- take the nga hat off, then. talk to us as the governor of delaware. what kind of a deal would benefit your state or hurt it the least if we want to put it that way. >> well, let me put it this way. as you mentioned at the outset,
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when we in delaware face add budget shortfall when i first took office in 2009, we, in fact, did adopt a balanced approach. we started with spending cuts. we did increase some revenues. and we've continued to focus on how we can become more .more efficient. but we recognized from the beginning, you can't cut your way to a prosperous future. the only way out is to grow. so we have been relentlessly focused ever since then on putting the right policies into place to grow and also having the right attitude. >> when do you expect us to get back to growth? growth seems like the issues around the fiscal cliff, to be fair, we are looking at an economy that's growing, just slowly. >> yeah. i think it's a bit -- recently last week i was in korea and japan doing some business over there to with companies.
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i did hear over and over again, there's a lot of concern over there about whether or not the folks in washington will be able to get a deal together. because it's unlikely that many of those companies there or here are going to be willing to invest, to hire, to put people to work unless there's some kind of resolution, some kind of clarity looking forward. >> we'll leave it there. good to have you on the program, sir. thanks very much, governor. >> thank you. >> jack markell. >> and this is not a knock on the governor, but did you notice like so many elected officials, they can't bring themselves to publicly say the word, we raised taxes, right? which is what they did and it worked, but we raised revenue. revenue has become the new catch word for taxes. >> right. we are raising stock prices right now. we were down 189. down 107 right now. >> is this decline a preview of what can come next week if we
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don't see a deal to avoid the cliff? we'll talk about it. >> also, antawn shutz gives us his best banking betts for the year. plus, he'll explain how it could change if we fall off the fiscal cliff. starts with adding a friend... ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.
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welcome back. if today's market action is any suggestion of what's to come, where do you put your money now? >> where do you put your money in the final five trading days of the year? >> well, i think you want to position yourself for growth, for global growth. the u.s. is slowing, so you want to basically have some of your big technology stocks. you want to have some oracle, you want to have some apple. apple has sold off here. buy some. if apple gets approval for the china mobile contract, and the television, the smart television which are both expected, anticipated this year, we're looking for earnings this coming year of $50. $50 times 14 is $700 price target. we have a $720 price target, bill. so we've put apple, qualcomm, microsoft, oracle, and your big
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club stocks. all of those have done well this year. the big winners of this month, the banks have come on super strong. china ma and japan. and i think you can start to nibble a little on china and japan, as well. >> michael, is there an argument to be made that you don't want to touch stocks right now until you have some clarity on this fiscal cliff? just in case we see a big sell-off? >> there is, but i'll argue, too, that you're talking about $600 billion being sucked out of the economy next year. the s&p made $20 trillion. while we are looking at the fiscal cliff countdown, there is another countdown to new all-year highs when the dow is close to the prior peak around 600% from here. investors should be looking overseas. you want to look where there is no fiscal cliff equivalent, primarily in emerging markets. but nonpartisan analysts have pointed out that if we go over the cliff and take that $600 billion with it, we go back to
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recession. how do you justify going into stocks and going into all-time highs if we go back to recession? >> that assumes all else being equal, the problem is you look at europe, it's recovering. you look at the way china is acting, it's recovering. a lot of the weakness that could come from the fiscal cliff may be picked up from overseas markets which have been a drag this year. maybe you see a flipping of that in 2013. >> it's interesting that you are looking at the emerging markets. even though, yes, you're looking at higher growth rates than some of these outside the u.s. hot spots, they've come down quite a bit. does that slowdown in growth affect you? >> no question it's slowed down quite a bit. the big three things that have happened in 2012, only five days left, are things that didn't have. greece does not have an exit. citigroup had a 90% chance earlier this year. the biggest day of this jurn year was june 17th when they elected a moderate who did not try to pull greece out. and germany stepped up and gave
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them some money and that september the 6th, that was the european central bank. so you had china, maria, the united states and greece. none of them went off the cliff. maria, this is for you. our little christmas present for you, maria. >> thank you. thank you. >> we want to remember, by the way, this is emblem attic of all these nice things you have said this week for the victims of the newtown connecticut tragedy. we love the way you all have been strong in support of them. >> thank you. i very much appreciate that. michael, let me ask you, what do you want to be avoiding in 2013? >> i think you have to look at it from the standpoint of extreme. it's clearly in the bond market. it's clearly in the love for dividends. it's clearly in the love for income versus capital appreciation, versus cycle kral. i call this the rocky balboa stock market. we've had tremendous swings from the bears.
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you cannot deny the resilience, best year since '09. how is it comparatively smaller fiscal cliff going to do it? >> he does have a point. the relative strength of this market this year has been impressive given all the headwinds that this market has. >> it's been macho ka macho. that's the fighter who just passed away in puerto rico. it has taken blows like you can't believe and has hung in there. and the market leads the economy, not the economy leads the market. we remain defensively positioned because of profits, production and personal income. but we do know maybe we need to change that because the personal income numbers that came out today were pretty good and the industrial production and the durable goods orders have been pretty good. >> we've got rocky playing. >> you guys can't hear it, but they're playing the rocky theme right now. i wondered why you guys were laughing. >> yeah. we were laughing about that. any thoughts about asset classes? it seems like ben bernanke has
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given us the opportunity in 2012 and 2011 to put money into stocks or money into homes. housing showing some very good -- is that the play going into 2013, as well? >> yeah, i think so. i think the play is to go where nobody is betting. just like nobody was betting on rocky in rocky i. we still have a few more stories to go here. >> consider a little japan as we mentioned dwrerl and consider some gold and some gold mining stocks that have lagged. this will be a time, if you don't have any gold, if you get some day moving back to replace flagz and inflation, that's the gold and the gold mining stocks. >> thank you very much. >> thanks, david. thanks, michael. good to see you both. we're in the final stretch, about 15 minutes before the close of the week. >> investors getting worried about congress not reaching a deal on the fiscal cliff. we'll find out if there's any chance of a compromise, straight
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ahead. and you missed quite an interview yesterday. are you prepared to put that on the table? >> no. >> are you prepared to put on the table the mortgage deduction? yes or no? >> i am not going to make a decision in the next -- >> no. >> oh, god. coming up, we speak to republican congressman mick mulvaney who was one of the lawmakers threatening to vote no on speaker boehner's plan. >> he's really excited to be on now. >> oh, god. we believe the mor, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
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so what happened to this market? monday, tuesday, and wednesday, up. now today it's a hundred points. >> because of the fiscal cliff negotiations. >> the markets spotted a deal. >> early in the week, there was the optimism. what's next for the market? after today's close, we have, as you pointed out, five trading days left. i think they get a deal done. i think they get a deal done. these are important issues. >> as judd gregg pointed out,
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we're not that far apart. there's maybe $200 billion separating them on the spending cut sides. $4 must know billion depending on the tax increases they're looking at. and i think they can at least come up with a framework. that wouldn't take all that much time. that would be another couple of visits from john boehner up to the white house to put something together to get a framework and then they can work on the details after that. >> we'll see. >> you don't think that's going to happen? >> look, why hasn't it happened? >> because they set a deadline on december 31st and that deadline is over there. it's not here. they still have all that time to go. that's how it works in washington. you know that. >> i guess so. i guess so. >> did you ever turn in a term paper before it was due? >> no. >> i didn't, either. no. >> that's how we roll. >> you are an optimist, though. i just worry that the market has so much room for error. >> well, and you know what? i think that's very interesting, too. michael giad, his point, the
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relative strength of this market, even in the phase of all of the turmoil in washington i think is very impressive. and i have always sided with the market. i think the market senses that we're going to get a deal. they're more inclined to think that, right? >> that's certainly what the market is expecting. got the closing countdown next. >> also still to come here on the closing bell, we have five trading days left until the fiscal deadline. find out how you should be putting yo enmonth to work here in the next hour of "closing bell." to the best vacation spot on earth. (all) the gulf! it doesn't matter which of our great states folks visit. mississippi, alabama, louisiana or florida, they're gonna love it. shaul, your alabama hospitality is incredible.
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coming up on the five minute mark and we showed the dow chart earlier, which, you know, we had the 100-point gains monday and tuesday with all the optimism. all you needed to see otherwise for sentiment in this market was the volatility index, the fear indicator. because it was lower in the early part of the week with all the optimism. and as the optimism faded, the vix for the first time moving ever closer to the yellow flag territory of 20. we're up in the 8% range now of 620. show you that dow chart one more
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time. three days this week we had 100-point moves. monday, tuesday and today. today is futures expiration day so we might get volatility here. here is the next indicator. i'm going to ask david darst about this again. gold down sharply on the week of 2.4%. but it's been for a few weeks now that we've seen gold declining. today it's up to $1655. one more thing, our fiscal cliff portfolio that our research group put together still pointing to a resolution on the fiscal cliff at this point. still. >> five days. >> you're not inclined to -- >> well, you know how i feel, though. i think it's crazy that here we are. they had 13 13 months to do this. now they have five days. these are all very important issues to america. >> ben, what do you make of this market? you're the hot handed trader right now. >> i'm still a buyer. you buy the dipts.
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if you want a protection, you had a great chance to buy the vix. >> because you think we're going to get a resolution? >> absolutely. >> what do you expect in terms of volume, in terms of this market? earlier, art cashin told us there were some stocks still to buy. >> it's a net imbalance to buy, but it's about $5 million in money rotation either side. but it's going to have an effect on every listed stock down here. expect a huge pop in volume that should add slightly to the bid on lifting this market late into the close. i would expect to see that. but, again, this is one of the days traders may live for. this is what traders live to see. >> the volatility? >> right. >> gold, you're going to nibble at gold here? >> i think as gold comes off, you want to add a little bit if you don't have any. gold is a protector of purchasing power over long periods of time. you know this very well, bill. gold drifted down from 1980 to 2003. drift is slowly down. now we've had a big move up 12
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years in a row. >> maybe with one meaningful correction in that time. >> you're not going to believe this. the volatility of gold is 9.5 for the last ten years. the stock market is 20. emerging markets is 40. so it's been a very quiet. it's almost like having children and they go up his and play while you're making dinner and you don't hear it up there. >> that is just unheard of. that is golden. >> what about other commodities? when you look at oil, when you look at silver platinum, are there opportunities there? >> i'm amazed, maria. the gas price of $3.22 nationwide is starting this year at $328. it's down 2% for the year. >> as it should be. demand is going down. >> it's been a good thing for us. do keep your eye -- with all that's fiscal cliff discussions going on on the debt ceiling which is a february/march type of thing. and municipal bonds is very possible that this time around, there may be some capping of this tax exemption of your muni.
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and they've had a tough december. they're down about 3% on the month. >> the president is asking that they raise the debt ceiling for one year as part of his resolution of the fiscal cliff. we may not have any problems in march, but we'll see. >> we'll see about that. that's certainly the next big event for these two. i'm going to get going. we have a great show in the next hour. i had a great terms from one of the traders on the floor. he said merry cliff-mis. >> you love that. would you buy gold here? >> i would buy silver. it's more utilitarian. i would defer to anybody else who claims to have knowledge of it the. >> i have to tell you, darst, i'm in that camp, as well. i get the notion of something like gold being an inflation hedge once upon a time when you could trade gold as a currency. but we're in a different age now, aren't we? >> great point. in all my years of